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人工智能AI可代替大量就业岗位 Artificial intelligence AI can replace a large number of jobs
人工智能AI可代替大量就业岗位
Artificial intelligence AI can replace a large number of jobs
The December 27th times website published the article by author Ian Kim, entitled "prediction in 2018: Amazon, AI and China's tourism boom".
The article said that the dollar did not reach the level of Euro value parity in 2017, but beyond that, all other predictions made here last year were proved to be complete and correct.
So what's the situation in 2018? The following are 10 predictions for the coming year:
1. this will be a year for global mergers and acquisitions
American companies will be financially enhanced by Trump's tax cuts, and the money will be put into use as funds return from overseas to the United States. Banks think that mergers and acquisitions will increase as regional economy continues to grow in Latin America next year, and the overall momentum of Asia is still positive. Global acquisitions surpassed 2 trillion and 500 billion dollars in 2017, and it is estimated that this figure may reach $3 trillion next year.
2. after the entry into force of the EU's financial instruments market directive 2 (MiFID II), the analysis of the symposium is increasingly polarized
The "release of bundles" means that intermediaries have to charge for research results. This will lead to a decrease in the number of research analysts, but it also means that analysts who can continue to survive must be more knowledgeable and produce more quality initiatives, which proves that collecting fees is reasonable.
3. the ECB will complete its asset purchase plan by the end of 2018
Because the euro area economy is showing a good momentum in 2017, and it will probably continue to grow at least 2% in 2018, it will be unreasonable to take quantitative easing policy. However, although inflation is slowing down, Mario Delagi, the European central bank governor, will not rush to cancel the negative interest rate policy. The policy will continue until 2019.
4. Glencore shares will rise
The share price of the mining and trading company rose by 35% in 2017, but there is still further room to go up in the future. This month's investor update report is inspiring, and the development strategy for connection in the coming years is formulated. Especially, the prospect of cobalt as an important component of Li ion battery for electric vehicles is emphasized. The company's share price will rise by at least 5% in 2018. If its chief executive, Ivan Grasenberg, can partially return Jia Nengke's huge cash flow to investors, the share price will increase.
5. the number of jobs lost by artificial intelligence will increase substantially
The year 2018 will be a strong momentum for the Internet of things. There will be a large number of unprecedented positions that can be replaced by computer systems that can self learn and reason, and use voice recognition. With the progress of artificial intelligence, more jobs will eventually be invented than the jobs it destroys, but this will not be the case next year.
6. the new president of the Bank of England will not be released to the outside world
Mark Carney's term of office is due to expire around June 2019, and the identity of his successor should be released before the end of 2018, according to normal conditions. But the government may postpone the time to publish Carney's successor, because cabinet ministers and government officials are busy at the time to finalize the trade agreement between Britain and Europe. Andrew Bailey, the director of the financial behavior regulator, is a strong competitor to the position.
7. the price of oil will not change too much
The OPEC resolution extended the deadline for 1 million 800 thousand barrels of crude oil production to the end of 2018. However, the oil output of the non OPEC countries led by the US, Canada and Brazil will increase by at least 1 million 500 thousand barrels per day, while the OECD countries' oil inventories are at a historically high level. By the end of 2018, the organization of the petroleum exporting countries discussed the extension of the deadline for production reduction to 2019. But it will not show a big drop in the price of crude oil. If you don't have a "black swan" like war, the price of Brent's crude oil should be 55 to 65 dollars a barrel for the whole year.
8. Amazon will go into the scope of financial service
It will not become a fully regulated bank, but it will begin to provide a series of financial services. It used to provide loans for small and medium-sized businesses, and in Europe, there were similar services in the European local market, which is similar to PayPal's online payment business. Because Amazon has more trust than most banks, and its controlled customer trading data is bigger than any other organization on earth, so its action will bring great shock to the financial service category.
9. the Fed will raise interest rates three times this year
Canada has simplified the procedures for Chinese tourists to go to Canada, and Canada has a large number of Chinese tourists since it has surpassed 1 million 500 thousand of its Canadian blood. Next year is the European Union - China tourism year, which will make the number of Chinese tourists traveling to Europe high. Britain will be an important beneficiary. In 2017, the weakness of the British currency made the country a good entry.
The article said that the dollar did not reach the level of Euro value parity in 2017, but beyond that, all other predictions made here last year were proved to be complete and correct.
So what's the situation in 2018? The following are 10 predictions for the coming year:
1. this will be a year for global mergers and acquisitions
American companies will be financially enhanced by Trump's tax cuts, and the money will be put into use as funds return from overseas to the United States. Banks think that mergers and acquisitions will increase as regional economy continues to grow in Latin America next year, and the overall momentum of Asia is still positive. Global acquisitions surpassed 2 trillion and 500 billion dollars in 2017, and it is estimated that this figure may reach $3 trillion next year.
2. after the entry into force of the EU's financial instruments market directive 2 (MiFID II), the analysis of the symposium is increasingly polarized
The "release of bundles" means that intermediaries have to charge for research results. This will lead to a decrease in the number of research analysts, but it also means that analysts who can continue to survive must be more knowledgeable and produce more quality initiatives, which proves that collecting fees is reasonable.
3. the ECB will complete its asset purchase plan by the end of 2018
Because the euro area economy is showing a good momentum in 2017, and it will probably continue to grow at least 2% in 2018, it will be unreasonable to take quantitative easing policy. However, although inflation is slowing down, Mario Delagi, the European central bank governor, will not rush to cancel the negative interest rate policy. The policy will continue until 2019.
4. Glencore shares will rise
The share price of the mining and trading company rose by 35% in 2017, but there is still further room to go up in the future. This month's investor update report is inspiring, and the development strategy for connection in the coming years is formulated. Especially, the prospect of cobalt as an important component of Li ion battery for electric vehicles is emphasized. The company's share price will rise by at least 5% in 2018. If its chief executive, Ivan Grasenberg, can partially return Jia Nengke's huge cash flow to investors, the share price will increase.
5. the number of jobs lost by artificial intelligence will increase substantially
The year 2018 will be a strong momentum for the Internet of things. There will be a large number of unprecedented positions that can be replaced by computer systems that can self learn and reason, and use voice recognition. With the progress of artificial intelligence, more jobs will eventually be invented than the jobs it destroys, but this will not be the case next year.
6. the new president of the Bank of England will not be released to the outside world
Mark Carney's term of office is due to expire around June 2019, and the identity of his successor should be released before the end of 2018, according to normal conditions. But the government may postpone the time to publish Carney's successor, because cabinet ministers and government officials are busy at the time to finalize the trade agreement between Britain and Europe. Andrew Bailey, the director of the financial behavior regulator, is a strong competitor to the position.
7. the price of oil will not change too much
The OPEC resolution extended the deadline for 1 million 800 thousand barrels of crude oil production to the end of 2018. However, the oil output of the non OPEC countries led by the US, Canada and Brazil will increase by at least 1 million 500 thousand barrels per day, while the OECD countries' oil inventories are at a historically high level. By the end of 2018, the organization of the petroleum exporting countries discussed the extension of the deadline for production reduction to 2019. But it will not show a big drop in the price of crude oil. If you don't have a "black swan" like war, the price of Brent's crude oil should be 55 to 65 dollars a barrel for the whole year.
8. Amazon will go into the scope of financial service
It will not become a fully regulated bank, but it will begin to provide a series of financial services. It used to provide loans for small and medium-sized businesses, and in Europe, there were similar services in the European local market, which is similar to PayPal's online payment business. Because Amazon has more trust than most banks, and its controlled customer trading data is bigger than any other organization on earth, so its action will bring great shock to the financial service category.
9. the Fed will raise interest rates three times this year
America's strong economic performance and labor market manpower shortage will force the fed to raise interest rates three times, each time by 25 basis points. In contrast, due to the sluggish growth of income and the recent increase in inflation rate, it is thought that the short term phenomenon brought by the pound's fall is only a 25 basis point increase in England bank.
Canada has simplified the procedures for Chinese tourists to go to Canada, and Canada has a large number of Chinese tourists since it has surpassed 1 million 500 thousand of its Canadian blood. Next year is the European Union - China tourism year, which will make the number of Chinese tourists traveling to Europe high. Britain will be an important beneficiary. In 2017, the weakness of the British currency made the country a good entry.